Crisis as Catalyst: Understanding Democratic Transition under Military Rule in Pakistan (1999–2008)

Abstract

The process of democratic transition in the post-colonial states is commonly unforeseeable. Several interferences in democracy by the military have disrupted the expected outcomes in Pakistan creating a distinctive pattern of reversal and recovery. This article studies the rule of General Pervez Musharraf (19992008) as an example of authoritarian that fell apart under pressure of internal crises and geopolitical changes in the environment. The article illustrates how authoritarian regime-based regimes are brought into democratization through a three-stage model that is; (1) consolidation and co-option, (2) rising discontent and crisis and (3) negotiated transition. It uses combinations of elite interviews, secondary evidence, and historical trends to point out that democratization in Pakistan is never brought by the ideas of democracy but it is mostly triggered by crises, reactive, and is highly negotiated. It is proposed in this research that once an organized opposition and international pressure are provided together with a decay in the legitimacy of a regime, the factors too make transition viable rather than merely feasible. It reveals the vulnerability of such transitions and how such transitions pose repetitive risk of an authoritarian reinvasion into the politics of Pakistan.